美国人口到2100年或将开始萎缩

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美国人口到2100年或将开始萎缩
The U.S. Census Bureau is a federal agency that researches information about America's population, housing, and economy.
美国人口调查局是一个研究美国人口、住房和经济信息的联邦机构。
The latest Census Bureau report shows that the U.S. population will decrease with low immigration, and older adults will outnumber children by the end of the century.
美国人口调查局的最新报告显示，随着移民人数的减少，美国人口将会减少，到本世纪末，老年人的数量将会超过儿童数量。
The report also says that white, non-Hispanic people will account for less than 50 percent of the population.
该报告还显示，非西班牙裔白人将占美国总人口的不到50%。
The Census report offers an idea of what the nation may look like in the future.
人口普查报告提供了一个关于这个国家未来可能是什么样子的想法。
But it cannot predict unexpected events like a worldwide pandemic.
但它无法预测诸如全球新冠疫情之类的意外事件。
Paul Ong teaches public affairs at the University of California, Los Angeles.
保罗·翁在加州大学洛杉矶分校教授公共事务。
He said such predictions can help the U.S. prepare for change, from health care for old people to the number of schools for the young.
他说，这样的预测可以帮助美国为老年人的医疗保健和年轻人的学校数量等变化做好准备。
"Seeing that possibility also opens up opportunities for action," he said.
他说：“看到这种可能性也为采取行动提供了机会”。
Population changes caused by birth and deaths are more predictable.
由出生和死亡引起的人口变化更容易预测。
They may also be caused by changes in immigration policy.
它们也可能是由移民政策变化造成的。
Because of that, the Census Bureau offers three different predictions through the year 2100 based on high, medium, and low immigration.
正因为如此，美国人口调查局根据高移民率、中移民率和低移民率对2100年做出了三种不同的预测。
In all three situations, the U.S. will become older and more diverse.
在所有这三种情况下，美国都将会变得更加老龄化和多样化。
If there is low immigration, the population will decrease; medium or high immigration will increase the population.
如果移民率低，人口就会减少；移民率中等或高会增加人口。
By 2029, the report estimates that older people will outnumber children, with 71 million people over 65 as compared to 69 million under the age of 18.
该报告估计，到2029年，老年人的数量将超过儿童数量，65岁以上的人口将会达到7100万，而18岁以下的人口将会达到6900万。
The aging of the population is important because this will mean fewer workers.
人口老龄化很重要，因为这将意味着劳动力减少。
An aging population also means more deaths than births.
人口老龄化还意味着死亡人数多于出生人数。
The report estimates that, by 2025, the share of the U.S. population that is white and not Hispanic will be under 50 percent for the first time.
该报告估计，到2025年，美国白人而非西班牙裔人口的比例将首次低于50%。
Also, Asians will pass Hispanics as the largest group of immigrants by race or ethnicity.
此外，亚洲人将超过西班牙裔，成为按种族或民族划分的最大移民群体。
Under the medium immigration estimate, the U.S. population reaches its highest total at more than 369 million people in 2081.
根据移民率中等的情况估计，美国人口总数在2081年达到最高水平，超过3.69亿人。
After that, the Census Bureau predicts a slight population decline, with deaths overtaking births and immigration.
在那之后，人口调查局预测人口数量将会略有下降，死亡人数将会超过出生人数和移民人数。
By the end of the 2090s, the report estimates that foreign population will make up almost 19.5 percent of people in the U.S.
该报告估计，到21世纪90年代末，外国人口将占美国人口的19.5%。
The number is currently at 13.9 percent.
这一数字目前为13.9%。
In the past, immigration was linked to economic opportunity in the U.S.
过去，移民与美国的经济机会息息相关。
Today, immigration is caused by climate change, social issues related to dictators and violence, as well as ever-changing feelings about immigrants in the country.
如今，移民是由气候变化、与独裁者和暴力有关的社会问题以及这个国家不断变化的移民情绪造成的。
These issues make immigration more difficult to predict today, says Manuel Pastor, a professor of sociology at the University of Southern California.
南加州大学社会学教授曼纽尔·帕斯特表示，这些问题使如今的移民情况更加难以预测。
Aliana Mediratta is a 20-year-old student at Washington University in St. Louis.
20岁的阿利亚纳·梅迪拉塔是圣路易斯华盛顿大学的一名学生。
She welcomes a future with a more diverse population.
她欣然接受一个人口更加多样化的未来。
She believes immigration "is great for our society and our economy."
她认为，移民“对我们的社会和经济大有裨益”。
But that optimism is affected by issues that seem to be getting worse, including climate change and gun violence.
但这种乐观情绪受到了一些似乎越来越严重的问题的影响，其中包括气候变化和枪支暴力。
"I feel like I have to be optimistic about the future," Mediratta said.
梅迪拉塔说：“我觉得我必须对未来保持乐观。”
She thinks that if she believes the worst will happen, it might stop her from doing the morally right thing, even if it is hard.
她认为，如果她相信最坏的事情会发生，这可能会阻止她做道德上正确的事情，即使这很难。
I'm Gena Bennett.
吉纳·班尼特为您播报。