地球多项指标超出"人类安全运行空间"

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地球多项指标超出"人类安全运行空间"
A new study from international researchers says that Earth is outside of its "safe operating space for humanity" in six of nine measures of its health.
国际研究人员的一项新研究表明，关乎地球健康的九项指标中有六项超出了“人类安全运行空间”。
The study added that two of the remaining three measures are moving in the wrong direction.
该研究论文还称，其余三项指标中有两项正朝着错误的方向发展。
The international scientists published the study in Science Advances.
国际科学家在《科学进展》上发表了这篇研究论文。
They said Earth's climate, biodiversity, land, freshwater, nutrient pollution, and human-made compounds are outside of "safe operating space for humanity."
他们表示，地球的气候、生物多样性、土地、淡水、营养物污染和人造化合物都超出了“人类安全运行空间”。
The scientists said only the acidity of the oceans, the health of the air, and the ozone layer are within limits considered to be safe.
科学家表示，只有海洋酸度、空气健康和臭氧层在被认为是安全的范围内。
The ozone layer is mainly high in the atmosphere and prevents dangerous solar radiation from reaching the surface of the Earth.
臭氧层主要在大气层高层，阻止危险的太阳辐射到达地球表面。
But the study warned that both the ocean and air pollution are moving in the wrong direction.
但该研究警告称，海洋和空气污染都在朝着错误的方向发展。
Johan Rockstrom is a climate scientist who helped write the study.
约翰·罗克斯特罗姆是一名气候科学家，他帮助撰写了这篇研究论文。
He is director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
他是德国波茨坦气候影响研究所所长。
He said, "We are in very bad shape."
他说：“我们的情况非常糟糕。”
He compared the Earth to a weakening, sick patient.
他把地球比作一个虚弱的病人。
In 2009, Rockstrom and other researchers created nine "boundary areas" and used measurements of them to judge Earth's health.
2009年，罗克斯特罗姆和其他研究人员创建了九个“边界区域”，并通过测量它们来判断地球的健康状况。
The latest study continued research from a similar one in 2015.
最新的研究延续了2015年的一项类似研究。
The latest study added a sixth area to the unsafe listing.
这项最新研究增加了第六个不安全区域。
Rockstrom said the Earth's water went from being safe to being "out-of-bounds."
罗克斯特罗姆说，地球上的水从安全区变成了“越界区”。
The scientists said this was because of river run-off.
科学家表示，这是河流径流造成的。
They said better measurements and understanding of the issue had shown there was a problem.
他们表示，更好的测量方法和对问题的理解表明存在问题。
Rockstrom said these boundaries would decide the future of the planet.
罗克斯特罗姆说，这些边界将决定地球的未来。
He added the nine measures have been "scientifically well established" by other studies.
他补充说，这九项指标已经被其他研究“科学地证实了”。
If Earth can manage these nine measures, Earth could be more-or-less safe.
如果地球能够管理这九项指标，地球可能或多或少是安全的。
But it is not, he said.
但事实并非如此，他说。
The nine measures were compared with each other in different ways.
他们用不同的方式对这九项指标进行了对比。
The team used computer simulations to predict the future.
该团队使用计算机模拟来预测未来。
They would, for example, make predictions based on increases in the average temperature of the Earth.
例如，他们会根据地球平均温度的上升进行预测。
The team found, if one area was affected badly by a temperature change then all areas were affected badly.
研究小组发现，如果一个区域受到温度变化的严重影响，那么所有区域都会受到严重影响。
The team also found that if one area improved, all areas improved.
研究小组还发现，如果一个区域有所改善，所有区域都会有所改善。
The scientists said the simulations showed that one of the most powerful ways to help the climate is to clean up land and to save forests.
科学家表示，模拟结果表明，改善气候的最有效方法之一是清理土地和拯救森林。
Returning forests to the late 20th century levels would provide natural areas to store carbon dioxide instead of in the air, where it traps heat, the study said.
研究称，将森林恢复到20世纪末的水平可以为储存二氧化碳提供自然空间而不是将其储存在空气中，空气中的二氧化碳会吸收热量。
Rockstrom added that biodiversity is in the most troubling area but does not get as much attention.
罗克斯特罗姆补充说，生物多样性是最令人不安的区域，但没有得到足够的关注。
However, the study said the ozone layer is improving.
然而，该研究称，臭氧层正在改善。
This shows that when the world and its leaders decide to deal with a problem, it can be fixed.
这表明，当世界及其领导人决定解决问题时，问题是可以解决的。
Neil Donahue is a Carnegie Mellon chemistry and environment professor.
尼尔·多纳休是卡内基梅隆大学的化学和环境学教授。
He said, "for the most part there are things that we know how to do" to improve the remaining problems.
他说，“在很大程度上，我们知道如何做一些事情”来改善剩余的问题。
Some biodiversity scientists, like Duke University's Stuart Pimm, have disputed Rockstrom's methods, saying they are not worth much.
一些生物多样性科学家，如杜克大学的斯图尔特·皮姆，对罗克斯特罗姆的方法提出了质疑，他认为这些方法没有多大价值。
Granger Morgan is a Carnegie Mellon environmental engineering professor and was not part of the study.
格兰杰·摩根是卡内基梅隆大学的环境工程学教授，他没有参与这项研究。
He said, "Experts don't agree on exactly where the limits are, or how much the planet's different systems may interact, but we are getting dangerously close."
他说，“专家们对界限的确切位置以及地球上不同系统之间的相互作用程度没有达成一致，但我们正在危险地接近。”
Morgan said he has often said if we do not cut back on how we are harming the Earth, "we're toast."
摩根说，他经常说，如果我们不减少对地球的伤害，“我们就完蛋了。”
He added, "This paper says it's more likely that we're burnt toast."
他补充说：“这篇论文称，我们更有可能是被烤焦了。”
I'm Gregory Stachel.
格雷戈里·施塔赫尔为您播报。

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